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This project, by the collaborate efforts of 11 mathematics students at WWU, primarily focused on finding the optimal amount of sulfur dioxide to reverse and mitigate the increased global temperatures caused by anthropogenic factors following the industrial revolution. We focused on using a select few volcanoes from different areas around the world to understand the process of this natural emission and explore the topic of SO2 injections.
A more in depth exploration of this analysis can be found in the original report, linked at the bottom of this page.
Infographic created by Berit Manser in Adobe Illustrator
Volcanic eruptions release sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions into the atmosphere, which form sulfate aerosols that reflect solar radiation and contribute to a cooling effect on the Earth's surface. In light of escalating global temperatures, there is growing interest in mimicking this cooling effect through geoengineering strategies such as sulfate injections into the stratosphere. This report focuses on modeling the cooling effect of SO2 emissions and estimating the optimal concentration for sulfate injections as a potential solution to global warming, exploring the possible risks and logistics of this approach
Recent eruptions from various volcanoes including Pinatubo (Philippines), Okmok (Alaska, US), Fagradalsfjall (Iceland), Sabancaya (Peru), and Mount St. Helens (Washington, US), were analyzed to understand sulfate emission processes. Data credibility was assessed based on consistency of each source and capture methods. Variables considered included plume height, sulfur dioxide quantities, volcano elevation, and local temperatures. Sulfur dioxide concentrations were derived from satellite data and plume volume calculations.
Various methods such a linear and polynomial fitting were applied to the SO2 emissions and temerpature data to capture just how much of a cooling effect each volcano had over the course of three months following the eruption, and what concentration levels were associated for specific deviations in temperature.
Each of these values represent the optimal SO2 concentration to inject in that area to abruptly cool local temperatures by 2°F.
The final step to the analysis was finding an optimal sulfate concentration, which in theory would be the concentration level injected into the stratosphere if the geoenginerring technique was pushed further.
The approximate increase in global temperatures sincethe industrial revolution is 2 degrees fahrenheit, so we choose 2 degrees to be the targeted temperature deviation for the optimal sulfate concentration.
Using the volcano models, we started by taking the highest SO2 concentration over thetime period for each individual volcano. In theory, this should be the day of the eruption, if not after. As time goes on, this concentration turns into sulfate aerosols and begins to dissipate through the atmosphere via the second law of thermodynamics. Then, we took the average temperature deviation over the time interval for each individual volcano. Now we have the SO2 concentration that we can roughly assume yields this temperature deviation. Since we want to reduce the global temperature by about 2 degrees, we optimize the SO2 concentration to yield an average temperature deviation of -2.
A conclusion was made that SO2 injections would not be a viable solution for global warming. Following this study, further analysis and research is needed on mitigation efforts to control negative effects of atmospheric injections.
An in depth discussion on the extensive adverse side effects that would be present, the overall ethicality of the method, and sulfate models for each indivisual volcano can be the found in the final report.
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